Happy summer!
…but more importantly, happy Virginia general election season!
This week finally put the Old Dominion’s primary contests in the rear view mirror, which is a landmark event in and of itself, but this year’s nomination battles produced some pretty spicy results in some places.
But more importantly, it’s officially general election season! Stay tuned after the primary roundup for a list of which House and Senate seats are competitive this fall and why.
Mama Said Knock You Out: Let’s start with Virginia’s highest-profile primary: Senate District 13, where former Del. Lashrecse Aird – who served three terms and then lost reelection in the Youngkin-led red burp (if you think it was a wave, I’ve got some data for you, hon) of 2021 – took on one-term state senator, former delegate, and general shitmonster Joe Morrissey, who also happens to be the last anti-abortion Democrat in the General Assembly.
Longtime readers of this missive are well-acquainted with Morrissey’s laundry list of misdeeds, but the last thing I want to do here is leave newer folks feeling adrift, so here’s an abridged version of the Many Misdeeds of “Fightin’ Joe” Morrissey, plus a little general context.
An attorney by trade (never mind that his law license has been repeatedly revoked and he remains disbarred, as detailed below), Morrissey began making a notorious name for himself in the 1990s, and he really hasn’t let off the gas since.
Fun fact! On top of these five kids, Morrissey has four other children by four other women.
So, yeah, Morrissey clearly doesn’t think that the rules that govern normal human behavior apply to him.
But the rules that govern elections do apply to him, so barring a last-minute filing as an independent candidate or a wildly successful write-in campaign, Morrissey is meaningfully out of politics.
…for now.
Anyway, enough about the loser.
Aird didn’t just win the Senate District 13 primary on Tuesday; she annihilated Morrissey by more than a 2-to-1 margin.
This is remarkable not because Morrissey is human trash, but because of the issue Aird focused on in the primary: reproductive freedom.
SD13 is heavily Democratic, so Aird is virtually guaranteed to represent it in the Senate next year.
I’m Still Standing: Charlottesville-area Senate District 11 was home to another high-profile Democratic contest. Del. Sally Hudson challenged Sen. Creigh Deeds for the nomination here, although there’s frankly not much daylight between the two on actual issues.
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Deeds has served in the General Assembly for more than three decades (I met him as a college-age intern when he was still in the House of Delegates, and NO I WILL NOT TELL YOU HOW LONG AGO THAT WAS), while Hudson, who’s also an economics professor at UVA, was first elected to the House in 2019.
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Hudson attempted to turn Deeds’ long career into a liability, dragging up past pro-gun votes (he used to represent a far more rural House district) and a 2009 A rating from the NRA.
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Deeds freely admits that his position on gun safety issues has evolved, particularly since the tragic 2013 death of his son by suicide (Deeds nearly died after his son stabbed him more than 10 times before shooting himself with a rifle).
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He’s been a staunchly pro-gun safety lawmaker for many years now – and sufficiently so that he won the endorsement of Gabby Giffords’ gun safety organization in this primary and has been designated a “Gun Sense Candidate” by Moms Demand Action.
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Deeds won the primary 51-49%, and SD 11 is sufficiently blue that Deeds has a fairly open path to victory in November.
Eye of the Tiger: Hampton Roads-area Senate District 18 saw a primary matchup between two Democratic heavyweights. Redistricting drew Sens. Louise Lucas and Lionell Spruill into the same seat, and both longtime lawmakers fought hard to win the nomination.
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Both Black legislators overcame profound systemic disadvantages in segregated southeastern Virginia to reach the state Capitol in the 1990s, and both are political powerhouses in their own rights.
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The tenor of their campaign, it could be said, reflected their political passion and strong personalities, as billboards, mailers, and brutal TV ads blanketed the district.
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Lucas prevailed 52-47%, and she’ll no doubt return to the Senate in this deeply Democratic district.
Virginia’s Democratic Senate primaries also saw a couple of interesting upsets.
How You Like Me Now? In Senate District 36, Sen. George Barker was challenged by Fairfax County school board member Stella Pekarsky..
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Barker, who’s served in the state Senate since 2008, ran on his record of bringing resources and economic development home to Northern Virginia, while Pekarsky leaned hard into her experience with education, community ties, and progressive stances on issues like gun safety and reproductive rights.
Pekarsky bested Barker to win the nomination 52-48%. SD36 is sufficiently blue that Pekarsky is heavily favored to win the seat in November.
The biggest Democratic upset of the night was also in Northern Virginia – in Senate District 37, specifically, where first-time candidate Saddam Salim scored a solid victory over Sen. Chap Petersen.
Salim will likely prevail in November in this solidly blue seat.
Don’t Stop Believin’: While Virginia’s Democratic Senate primaries resulted in nominees – especially in Northern Virginia – that are more in tune with the party’s (and, by and large – 2021’s red burp notwithstanding – Virginia’s overall) increasing progressivism, the most contentious Republican Senate primary appeared to steer that party somewhat away from the Trump-inspired, culture war extremism that’s come to define GOP on the national level.
But I’m using the term “appeared” here extremely intentionally, and I’ll get to that in a moment.
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The most-watched GOP Senate primary was in Senate District 12, which includes suburbs to the south of Richmond, where self-described “Trump in heels” Sen. Amanda Chase lost in a hotly contested three-way race.
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Chase has made news over the past several years for all the wrong reasons, finally culminating in a full divorce from the Republican Senate Caucus.
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Tina Ramirez is a single mom, nonprofit leader, and failed congressional candidate who “can be as outspoken as Chase” in her support of Trump.
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Both candidates lost to Glen Sturtevant, a former one-term state senator, who defeated Chase just 39-38%.
Virginia Republicans rushed to paint this outcome as evidence that GOPers in the commonwealth are moving “to the middle” while Democrats lurched to the left, but … well, this primary doesn’t actually provide evidence of that.
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To scrape out his slim win in this three-way race, Sturtevant had to tack HARD to the right.
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His past votes supporting the Equal Rights Amendment and a “red flag” gun safety bill became fodder for attacks from his opponents; he actually fully flip-flopped on his vote to keep firearms out of the hands of people who pose a danger to themselves or others, calling it a “mistake.”
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When he lost reelection to his Senate seat in 2019, his support for the red flag bill was believed to have cost him support among Republican voters in his district.
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Sturtevant also benefited from the endorsement of several of Chase’s fellow Senate Republicans, who have not been shy about their distaste for her tactics and demeanor.
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In 2021, her Senate colleagues formally censured her via a resolution that criticized Chase for praising the insurrectionists who breached the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021; noted that she had cursed at a state Capitol Police officer in Richmond over a parking space; accused Democrats of “treason” for their role in a “stolen” presidential election; dismissed the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic; and said then-Sen. Jennifer L. McClellan (who’s now a member of Congress) could not represent all Virginians because she helps lead the legislature’s Black Caucus.
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But no General Assembly Republican has indicated any fundamental disagreement with Chase’s policy positions, and Sturtevant essentially had to adopt her far-right stances to (barely) win the primary.
What Virginia Republicans did this week was rid themselves of a noisome, MAGA-loving grandstander; what they did not do was move anywhere closer to the political “center.”
Survivor: Virginia’s House primaries didn’t bring as much drama or as many upsets as their Senate counterparts. These contests saw just one incumbent-on-incumbent race: Wren Williams vs. Marie March in House District 47.
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These two first-term Republicans ended up vying to represent the same seat after the redistricting dust settled, resulting in a race pitting Virginia’s two most right-wing, MAGA-tastic lawmakers against each other.
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Williams attained extremist credibility by becoming part of the Trump legal team that challenged Biden’s victory in Wisconsin; March earned her extremist bona fides by being in Washington, DC, on Jan. 6, 2021 (although she denies actually assaulting and invading the U.S. Capitol building).
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Although they arrived in the General Assembly with similar political philosophies, Williams adapted to the GOP’s boys club far more successfully than March, who dedicated herself to living up to her reputation as an anti-establishment candidate; meanwhile, Williams began to occasionally set aside his “conservative convictions” to get legislation passed. Williams also garnered the extremely establishment endorsement of Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert, and he swamped March in fundraising.
While his policy stances are no less extreme than March’s, Williams is the lawmaker who will be returning to the House of Delegates this fall. He trounced March 67-33% in a contest tantamount to a general election in this heavily Republican district.
I Just Want To Celebrate: For a few primary candidates, though, the race isn’t over quite yet.
Final calls have yet to be made in two Democratic House primaries, one Democratic Senate primary, and one Republican Senate primary.
Interestingly, the uncalled Senate primaries are for the same seat: Senate District 29.
U Can’t Touch This: You may have noticed that there were more Democratic primary elections than Republican, and you were correct to do so!
Many GOP nominating contests have already been decided through other, markedly less-democratic means: specifically, firehouse primaries and conventions.
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These types of contests typically draw a fraction of the electorate that state-run primaries turn out; conventions require voters to congregate at a single location for hours, and voters in firehouse primaries must cast ballots within a limited time window (as opposed to the 13 hours polls are open on election day) and are required to do so at only a few locations across a district.
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Republicans held local conventions in four House seats and one Senate seat, and they opted for firehouse primaries (sometimes also referred to as a “mass canvass” or “unassembled caucus”) in two House districts and two Senate districts.
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Democrats across Virginia fully eschewed these less democratic nominating methods and instead had their voters select the party’s nominees in seats with more than one Dem candidate in this week’s primaries.
As I mentioned above, Republicans are attempting to spin the primaries as evidence of the GOP moving to the middle while Democrats veer to the left; these discussions conveniently omit mention of the right-wing GOPers party activists had already selected.
But not to worry – I’ll mention a few of them for you right now.
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Chris Obenshain, a member of a powerful Virginia political family who describes himself as “unashamedly pro-life,” won the nominating convention in HD-41.
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Tim Griffin used his victory speech at the HD-53 convention to discuss his aim “to introduce bills to outlaw abortion.”
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Del. John McGuire, who was in Washington, DC, on Jan. 6, 2021 – but claims he didn’t riot or enter the Capitol – won a four-way convention in SD-10 in May.
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Delores Oates, who “proudly” opposes reproductive rights, won the GOP firehouse primary in HD-31.
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In HD-89, Republicans selected N. Baxter Ennis, who has said he wants to “help Governor Youngkin with his conservative agenda.,” in a firehouse primary in May.
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Incumbent state Sen. Bryce Reeves won the SD-28 firehouse primary after being endorsed by Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
Takin’ Care of Business: Okay, enough with the primaries. It’s officially general election season, and everyone’s focus is turning to flipping and protecting the handful of competitive state House and Senate seats.
As ever, Daily Kos Elections is here with the data (checking them out is always a worthwhile pursuit, by the by — bookmark it if you haven’t!) behind what’s competitive where any why.
But here are the sexy bits.
First, the existing landscape:
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Republicans currently have majority control of the House of Delegates after winning it back from Democrats in 2021.
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It’s not a big majority, though – the GOP holds just a 52-48 edge in the 100-seat chamber.
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So Democrats need to flip just three seats to take back the majority.
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In the 40-seat state Senate, Democrats have a 22-18 majority.
So, first up: The House of Delegates.
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You can read the rest of this week’s edition here!
